2022-Jan-17
January 16 Water Levels Report
This month outflows from Lake Superior into the St. Mary’s River are predicted to be below average, not above average as they have been for almost 3 years prior to the spring of 2021. This shows that, under Plan 2012 balancing, the flow into Lake Michigan-Huron continues to be reduced. Lake Michigan-Huron continues to be below the level it was at this time last year – see first graph below. All the lakes are now lower than they were at this time last year.
From a month ago the water levels on Lakes Superior, Michigan-Huron, St Clair, Erie & Ontario are down 2, 4, 2, 1 & 0 inches, respectively. Lakes Superior, Michigan-Huron, St Clair & Erie are lower by 11, 18, 9 & 6 inches, respectively, and Lake Ontario is 9 inches higher than they were at this time last year. Lakes Michigan-Huron, St Clair, Erie & Ontario are 12, 21, 21 & 11 inches, respectively, above their long term January average, whereas Lakes Superior is 3 inches below. All the lakes remain well below their January record highs.
In a month’s time, the water levels on Lakes Superior, Michigan-Huron, St Clair & Erie are expected to be down 1-2 inches, and Lake Ontario is expected to be up 2 inches.
Outflows from Lake Superior into the St. Mary’s River is predicted to be below average for this month and Lake Michigan-Huron’s outflow into the St. Clair River is predicted to be above average for this month. Lake St. Clair’s outflow through the Detroit River and Lake Erie’s outflow through the Niagara River are also forecasted to be above average in this month. In addition, Lake Ontario’s outflow through the St. Lawrence River is projected to be above average for this month.
This report below shows the most recent month of precipitation and outflows published by Level News:
With regard to the forecast graph below, and the more recently updated first graph in this report, the USACE is predicting that the most likely outcome is that the Lake Michigan-Huron level will continue its seasonal decline into February, and then commence its seasonal rise in March through May and into June.
Monthly mean water levels for the previous year and the current year to date are shown as a solid line on the hydrographs. A projection for the next six months is given as a dashed line. This projection is based on the present condition of the lake basin and anticipated future weather. The shaded area shows a range of possible levels over the next six months dependent upon weather variations. Current and projected levels (solid and dashed lines) can be compared with the 1918-2019 average levels (dotted line) and extreme levels (shown as bars with their year of occurrence). The legend below further identifies the information on the hydrographs.
Ice cover is beginning to build along the shorelines with some offshore ice developing, particularly in the North Channel, as per the Jan 14 satellite image below:
