GBA 2023 - Spring Update

Last fall, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) published a longanticipated report providing detailed information on future predicted variability in water levels titled Climate Change in the Great Lakes Basin. GBA and Georgian Bay Forever (GBF) provided you with a series of informative webinars in 2020 and 2021 to explain: 1. The potential extent and impact of extreme high and low water levels, going forward 2. The limited ability of current control structures to mitigate this variability 3. What you can do (and should not do) to adapt to changing water levels We were pleased to see that some of the discussions we have had with ECCC and others over the last four years have found their way into the report, particularly the need to think carefully before investing in any shoreline infrastructure. The report also outlined the reasons why variability in predicted water levels is so important for businesses (for example, marinas and ports), municipalities, and lakefront residents, in order to properly assess shoreline infrastructure investments such as dock reconfiguration or relocation. Over the last 100+ years, the variation of water levels between the highest and lowest levels is referred to as the “historic range.” This historic range has been 6.33 feet. In 2013 and 2019/20 we almost reached the lowest and highest historic levels, and the cycle between those highest and lowest points was only six years. While it may be too early to tell, this could be an indication that climate change will result in faster transitions between highs and lows. The report provides predicted ranges and levels that are probability based. For Michigan-Huron, highs 2-4 feet above the 2019/20 highs and 1-2 feet below the 2013 lows are almost certain to happen at some point over the next 70 years, probably fairly often. This would be very impactful for low-lying properties, or those with water access/dock location issues in low water. The probability of ever reaching the extreme highs and lows in the predicted ranges is low, but the risk, however small, will increase over the 70-year period contemplated in the study. It is important to understand how concerning these extreme highs and lows could be. In the graph shown, the two left-hand blue sections illustrate the recent extreme low (2013) and high Vol. 33 No. 1, Spring 2023 Coastal Protection Update – Three New Guides for Life on the Bay .............................................5 Fire Won’t Wait. Plan Your Escape. ................................ 7 Camping Out: Summer Camps on Georgian Bay Remain Steeped in Tradition .......................................... 8 More Homes Built Faster Act Accelerates Threat to Our Shorelines ..........................................10 Remembering a True GBA Guardian: Paul Hamblin.........11 President’s Report ............................12 ED’s Advocacy Report.......................13 Upcoming Events...............................14 News and Information from the Georgian Bay Association Video Series Spotlights Cottager Stewardship PAGE 4 PAGE 6 PM # 40038178 GBA U P D A T E Your Voice on the Bay Biinaagami: Our Shared Responsibility to the Great Lakes Continues on page 2 INSIDE: By Rupert Kindersley, GBA Executive Director (Note that the arrows are not to scale and are for illustration purposes only.) The Future of Water Levels RETRACTED The potential extent and impact of extreme high and low water levels, going forward The limited ability of current control structures to mitigate this variability What you can do (and should not do) to adapt to changing water levels

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